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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have lifted slightly over the past 45 minutes but the overriding move on the day is a further drop in European hours, seemingly on follow-through from yesterday’s CPI print in absence of headline drivers.
- Pricing for Jul 26 remains solid, again unchanged at +22bp from the current effective 5.08%. Beyond that the terminal still lands with the Nov meeting but it’s now just a cumulative +28bp , i.e. more firmly against the June dot plot of two hikes.
- Cuts from terminal: 8bp to year-end, 80bp to Jun’24 (from 72bp yesterday close, 60bp Tue close) and 158bp to Dec’24 (from 147bp yesterday, 133bp Tue close).
- PPI inflation and jobless claims land shortly at 0830ET after which focus turns to Fedspeak with Daly (’24 voter) and the Waller (voter, with text). Waller, whilst late at 1845ET, is of note having last spoke on Jun 16 when he said core inflation isn’t coming down like I though it would. He’s in the past noted July’s deceptive one-off dip and we wouldn’t be surprised to hear something similar when discussing yesterday’s CPI print.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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