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Fed Rates Holding Less Than 2 Cuts In 2024, Williams Leads Fedspeak

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates broadly consolidate yesterday’s shunt higher on US CPI.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 5bp Jun, 12.5bp Jul, 23bp Sep, 29bp Nov and 41bp Dec.
  • Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari (non-voter) told PBS Newshour: "The longer that inflation just moves sideways and doesn’t actually move back down, that would make me say we should pause indefinitely until we see that confidence that inflation is beat". He had previously indicated he forecast two cuts in 2024 but also floated the idea of no cuts this year.
  • Today’s Fedspeak starts shortly after the key inflation and jobs data at 0830ET. Permanent voter Williams, typically dovish-leaning, is of particular note after limited recent commentary. ’24 voters Barkin and Bostic could also be of note but the nature of today’s address may limit headlines – Bostic pencilled in two cuts in the March SEP whilst Barkin is somewhat hawkish-leaning.
  • 0845ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) keynote address (incl text)
  • 1000ET – Barkin (‘24) Q&A at National Council of Textile Organizations
  • 1200ET – Collins (non-voter) at Eco Club of NY (incl text)
  • 1330ET – Bostic (’24) in moderated discussion on leadership

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