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Fed Rates Lift Back Closer To Post-ISM Services Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed back higher today, with the curve unwinding about half of yesterday’s rally and pushing back towards levels seen after the ISM Services beat.
  • Drivers have been light, with data not moving the dial, and only a limited surprise appearance from Daly at a SF Fed event (too early to declare victory, may be more work to do). We wrote on how this compares to other Fedspeak this week earlier, found here.
  • There is still a possibility of further pop-up appearances ahead of the blackout starting tonight, but they’re unlikely to be able much ahead of US CPI in focus on Wednesday.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp to Sep, +12bp to Nov for 5.45% terminal, and still closely followed by +11.5bp to Dec.
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 38bp to Jun’24 (from 40bp yesterday) and 104bp to Dec’24 (from 108bp).
  • However, despite the trimming of these cut expectations, longer-term breakevens have still seen a decent increase today with the 5Y and 10Y +2.5bp and +2bp respectively.
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