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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates probe marginally higher for the very near-term but otherwise continue to sit within recent ranges, awaiting Powell’s appearance in Sintra on a panel including ECB’s Lagarde (no prepared text).
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2.5bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 27bp Nov, 45bp Dec and 58bp
- Powell last spoke at the FOMC press conference on Jun 12. From the MNI Fed Review (full report here): “Powell gave little away on rate cut timing as expected, noting that while May’s CPI (+0.16% M/M core versus +0.28% consensus) in addition to April’s figure (+0.29% M/M) represented “progress” that was “building confidence”, “we don't see ourselves as having the confidence that … would warrant beginning to loosen policy at this time." In other words, the theme portrayed by the meeting communications is that rate cuts are being delayed, but they are still expected by year-end, and the ultimate destination hasn’t changed.”
- Since then, other data points have come in softer than expected including consumption metrics and core PCE at just 0.08% M/M in May (but only the first month for 2024 at a sub-2% pace).
- Earlier today, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) said policymakers should cut interest rates if US inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target in a BBG TV interview in Sintra. Bloomberg writes he feels “we are on a path to 2%” inflation and “if you just hold the rates where they are while inflation comes down, you are tightening — so you should do that by decision, not by default.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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