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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied hikes have been grinding higher in recent hours with some apparent progress in debt talks. They get back to post-GDP/initial claims highs for the June meeting and closer to them for subsequent meetings.
- Pertinent points: The terminal implied effective rate is 5.32% for July, i.e. back to pricing 24bp of hikes over the two meetings with just over 50% likelihood of a hike in June (+13bp).
- The 40bps of cuts from the terminal to year-end leaves the Dec rate just 16bp below current levels, at 4.92%. It remains off the 5% touched after the data but has still climbed another 9bps today.
- Both July and Dec rates are at highs since Mar 10.
- Cumulative change from 5.08% effective: +13bp Jun (+2.5bp on the day), +24.5bp Jul (+4.5bp), +19bp Sep (+7.5bp), +2.5bp Nov (+8bp), -16bp Dec (+9.5bp), -33bp Jan (+10bp).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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