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Fed Rates Reverse Presser Dip, SEP Sets The Tone

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS rates have pushed higher overnight, unwinding most of the decline seen through the press conference to take them nearer to post announcement levels with the hawkish dot plot with a median 5.6% for 2023 seemingly carrying most weight.
  • The upshot of that is July pricing only marginally higher at +17bps vs the cumulative +16bp pre-announcement, but holding sizeable increases further out with even January above current levels at an implied 5.10% .
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +17.5bp Jul (+1.5bp on the day), +21.5bp Sep (+2.5bp), +20.5bp Nov (+3bp), +14bp Dec (+3bp) and +2bp Jan (+3.5bp)
  • More detail plus changes post announcement and presser in the table below.

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