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Fed Rates Swing On Mixed Data, Back Slightly Below Pre-ADP Levels

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS rates are back near or slightly below levels just before ADP, having been shunted higher on the ADP beat and then reversing it on softer than expected ULCs.
  • Combined with the slide in the build up to the release, it leaves just +7bps implied for the Jun FOMC (-1.5bp on the day after yesterday’s 5bp decline on skip talks) and +17bp for the terminal 5.25% effective in Jul (-3bp).
  • As noted earlier, subsequent meetings had recovered more strongly earlier today but now also remain lower on the day, with the 4.90% for Dec -1bp on the day.

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