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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have shown little sign of spillover from German CPI looking on the soft side, and instead have reversed Friday’s drift lower. It’s an unwinding of a move that a decent part of which came ahead of the weekend rather than any particular reaction to the monthly PCE data which was followed by a surprisingly large upward revision to 1Y inflation expectations in the final U.Mich survey.
- That upward revision at the margin helps set the tone ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision amidst a light docket today aside from the Treasury’s quarterly marketable borrowing estimates.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: 0bp for Nov (unch), +5.5bp Dec (+1.5bp), +7.5bp Jan (+1bp) for a terminal of 5.41%.
- Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24 (from 28.5bp at Friday’s close) and 80bp to Dec’24 (from 83bp). The latter remains at the high end of the rough 65-85bp range seen since US CPI on Oct 12 with its strong supercore component.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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