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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed on the day, holding yesterday’s modest decline away from fresh post-retail sales highs as they struggle to push higher ahead of today’s PCE data.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 27bp Nov, 46bp Dec and 59bp Jan.
- Barkin (’24 voter) kickstarted today’s Fedspeak, saying he is open to the idea that the neutral rate has shifted up "somewhat" even if some effects of Fed tightening have yet to be felt. A rise in r-star would mean policy is not as restrictive as thought, and that aligns with data showing the U.S. economy "has been much more resilient to rate increases than most expected and is likely to stay so as long as valuations remain elevated, and unemployment remains low".
- Today’s scheduled Fedspeak shouldn’t be too impactful unless touching on PCE after appearances earlier this week.
- 0840ET – Daly (’24) on CNBC, likely overshadowed by the PCE report just 10 minutes earlier. She said Jun 24 that it’s “very clear” monetary policy is restrictive and that the Fed must be thoughtful about not holding rates too long.
- 1200ET – Bowman (voter) in moderated Q&A. She said Jun 25 that she expects inflation to remain elevated for some time and that she’s not yet at a point where it’s appropriate to cut rates.
- 1240ET – Daly (’24) on the impact of AI on business and the workforce (just Q&A). She said Jun 24 that contacts tell her AI is reducing costs, it could have a deflationary impact.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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