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FED: Schmid Offers A Hawkish Angle When Thinking Of 2025 Committee

FED
  • The above comment saying it's no surprise to see Schmid still needs convincing on a rate cut might be a little strong. It is at least notable, and indeed Tsy yields have climbed, considering other previously hawkish members such as Atlanta’s Bostic and Minnesota’s Kashkari have made statements that appear more open-minded with regard to the size and pace of cuts, even though it appears that this will very much be data dependent. For instance, Bostic was open to a cut in September as noted “evidence of accelerating weakness in labor markets may warrant a more rapid move, either in terms of the increments of movement or the speed at which we try to get back” [to neutral rates]).
  • Nevertheless, yesterday's FOMC minutes showed “several” members had already deemed it “plausible” to cut in July and a “vast majority” were ready to cut at the September meeting so there is likely only so much impact his comments can have. 
  • That said, being a '25 voter, his hawkish comments are best seen in light of a potential committee composition next year rather than near-term cut size implications. 
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