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Fed Seen With 25bp Locked In, Terminal ~4.9%

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are little changed post EZ CPI, instead consolidating yesterday’s move back lower kickstarted by a softer than expected ECI Q4 print.
  • Sitting with 25.5bp priced for today’s decision, a cumulative 46bp for Mar and 58bp to a terminal 4.91% for Jun (holding that 4.86-4.94 range since last month’s payrolls/ISM services) before 44bp of cuts to 4.47% end-2023.


Source: Bloomberg

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