MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 3

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Fed Terminal Dips Below 5% On FOMC Minutes

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  • The FOMC-dated OIS terminal rate sits at 5.0% having briefly dipped below, down 4bps on the release of the minutes and 6bps on the day.
  • Follows “various participants” expecting the terminal rate to be “somewhat higher than they had previously expected”, perhaps an indication of less chance of 2023 dot being bumped up from 4.5-4.75% in the September SEP.

FOMC-dated OIS implied rate with May'23 meetingSource: Bloomberg

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  • The FOMC-dated OIS terminal rate sits at 5.0% having briefly dipped below, down 4bps on the release of the minutes and 6bps on the day.
  • Follows “various participants” expecting the terminal rate to be “somewhat higher than they had previously expected”, perhaps an indication of less chance of 2023 dot being bumped up from 4.5-4.75% in the September SEP.

FOMC-dated OIS implied rate with May'23 meetingSource: Bloomberg