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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds implied hikes cool again having partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI slashing lower, leaving a 61bp hike priced for the Sept FOMC before a cumulative 116bps to year-end (3.49%) and 124bps to a Mar’23 peak (3.58%).
- The implied peak is down from just under 3.7% prior to CPI but still notably above the 3.45% pre-payrolls.
- The 50bps of cuts priced to 3.07% by Dec’23 continues to be much lower than FOMC member views. Evans (’23) and Kashkari (’23) yesterday stuck to Evans wanting 3.25%-3.5% by year-end, 3.75-4% end-23 and Kashkari 3.9% year-end, 4.4% end-23.
- This morning, Daly (’24) said it’s too early to declare victory on inflation but also stuck to a 50bp hike in Sept as her baseline – not ruling out 75bps but with increased support for a slowdown in the pace – and still wants rates of just under 3.5% by year-end. A re-appearance from Daly is the only scheduled Fedspeak at 1930ET on BBG TV.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rate at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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