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Fed Terminal Reverses Initial Powell Dip, Cuts Trimmed Further

STIR
  • Pricing for the Sep 20 FOMC on balance remains lower after Powell’s speech at +4.5bp (-0.5bp from pre-Powell) but other meetings have more than reversed the modest drop.
  • Terminal pricing is now pushing new recent highs, with a cumulative +15bps to 5.48% (+0.5bp). These levels are back at Mar 8/9 levels.
  • Cuts are trimmed further, with fresh recent lows for inversion to Jun’24 with 35bps from terminal vs 40bps shortly before Powell.

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