September 11, 2023 10:24 GMT
Fed Terminal Seen Split In Nov-Dec With Fed In Blackout
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- Fed Funds implied rates are slightly lower for November, with terminal now seen in both Nov and Dec, but are otherwise almost unchanged with cut expectations near recent lows for circa 100bps from the terminal to end-2024.
- WSJ’s Timiraos over the weekend wrote on an important shift in Fed officials’ rate stance as being under way with some officials seeing risks to tightening as more balanced rather than preferring to tighten too much than not at all. More here.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1.5bp Sep (unch from Fri close), +11bp in Nov (-1bp) and +11bp in Dec (-0.5bp).
- Cuts from terminal: 35bp to Jun’24 (from 36bp) and 101bp to Dec’24 (from 102bp).