Fed To Stick To 75bp Hike In July; 40% Chance Of Recession (RTRS Poll)

"The U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for another 75 basis point rate hike rather than a larger move at its meeting next week to quell stubbornly-high inflation as the likelihood of a recession over the next year rises to 40%, a Reuters poll of economists found."

• "Inflation hit 9.1% in June, another four-decade high, stoking expectations the Fed, having only just shifted gears from 50 to 75 basis points at the last meeting, would act even more forcefully and go for a 100 basis point hike. But some of the more hawkish Fed officials in public remarks have favored a 75 basis point hike, tempering those expectations in recent days. Last month's 75 bps hike was the first of that size since 1994."
• "The July 14-20 Reuters poll found 98 of 102 economists expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points at the end of the July 26-27 meeting to 2.25%-2.50%. The remaining four said they expected a 100 basis point hike."
• Click for full story.