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Ferrovial (BBB): FY23 Preview

TRANSPORTATION


  • Barring any unlikely surprises investors will be focused on capital allocation, with further sales of their Heathrow stake an ongoing topic. Details on redeployment of resources into North American opportunities may be discussed. Anything really disruptive from a credit perspective would be a surprise however.
  • Consensus expectations for 4Q revenue +3%, EBITDA +37% YoY.
  • Equity +6% YTD. FERSM 4.375 09/30 trades ~13bp tighter YTD. The rest of the curve trades tight; on top of ADPFP (A), while the 30s trade ~10 wide to the BBB curve. The 30s look reasonable for a defensive sector play with management executing well, albeit with some uncertainty around capital allocation.

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