Free Trial

UPDATE: FFG2 Pricing In Potential For Inter-Meeting Hike


February Fed Fund Futures are now seemingly pricing in the potential for an inter-meeting hike from the FOMC. The bulk of the move was triggered by hawkish commentary from ’22 FOMC voter Bullard, who told BBG that he is now calling for a cumulative 100bp of rate hikes by the end of June, while he noted that he is undecided re: the need for a 50bp hike in March (deferring to Chair Powell on the matter). While he also expressed the potential to the potential for an inter-meeting rate increase. This came in lieu of the (modest) upside surprises observed in the latest batch of U.S. CPI data.

  • The implied rate of the FFG2 contract peaked at 15.5bp on Thursday (vs. and effective Fed Funds rate of 0.8% as of Wednesday, before pulling back to close at 13.25bp (settling at 12.5bp). The move took place on heavy volume, with that metric hitting record levels for the front month Fed Funds contract based on data that stretches back to 1990. Thursday’s volume in the contract topped 325K, while the 20-day average of volume in the front month Fed Funds futures contract stood at ~13.3K before Thursday’s session.

Fig. 1: Feb ’22 Fund Futures (FFG2)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.