Filled Jobs Show Weak Labour Demand At Start Of Q3

July filled jobs fell 0.1% m/m, the fourth straight monthly decline, to be down 0.5% y/y, the lowest annual growth since April 2010. Given that employment data is quarterly and the next update is not until November 6 and filled jobs are on the RBNZ’s list of high frequency data, the series is an important gauge of labour market trends. It is signalling weak labour demand continued at the start of Q3 and so cuts at the RBNZ’s two remaining 2024 meetings are likely.

• July SEEK job ads rose 3.4% m/m after five consecutive falls. While this was the largest monthly increase in over two years, vacancies are still down 28.6% on a year ago. Given the weakness in the economy, it is unlikely to mark a turning point but will be interesting to watch.
• Statistics NZ noted that the fall in July filled jobs was broad-based across age groups. The total fell 0.8% 3m/3m but 15-24 year olds declined 3.1% and 25-34 yrs -1.8% and even over 35yrs -0.5%. Younger people are not only likely to be impacted the most by a labour market slowdown but also lead other age groups.
• The sectors that young people tend to be employed in saw a large fall in filled jobs with accommodation and food services down 6.7% y/y.
• Other weak sectors included construction down 7.2% y/y and admin -12.7% y/y.
• Filled jobs are collected through payroll reporting.

Source: MNI - Market News/SEEK/Statistics NZ