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CANADA: Fin Min LeBlanc Says He Won't Run For LPC Leader

CANADA
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Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc has confirmed that he will not enter the race to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). In a statement, LeBlanc - who took over from long-standing Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland following her resignation in December 2024 - said that his focus and that of his gov't departments must be on the threatened imposition of tariffs from the US once President-elect Donald Trump comes to office. 

  • The two frontrunners to take over from Trudeau remain Freeland and former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney. Betting markets are somewhat divided.
    • Polymarket has Carney as the favourite to become the LPC leader with a 40% implied probability to Freeland's 35%.
    • Data from Kalshi shows bettors giving Freeland a 43% implied probability of being the next PM compared to 38% for Carney (the two websites ask slightly different questions, but the next LPC leader - barring unforeseen circumstances - will become the PM and as such can be seen as essentially the same).
  • Whether Carney, Freeland, or another potential candidate emerges as LPC leader and PM they are unlikely to have a significant amount of time before an election campaign.
  • The leftist New Democratic Party and the regionalist Bloc Quebecois, both crucial to avoiding defeat for the minority LPC gov't in previous confidence votes, have said they support an election at the nearest opportunity. Opinion polling continues to show the main opposition centre-right Conservatives on course for a comfortable majority. 
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Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc has confirmed that he will not enter the race to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). In a statement, LeBlanc - who took over from long-standing Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland following her resignation in December 2024 - said that his focus and that of his gov't departments must be on the threatened imposition of tariffs from the US once President-elect Donald Trump comes to office. 

  • The two frontrunners to take over from Trudeau remain Freeland and former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney. Betting markets are somewhat divided.
    • Polymarket has Carney as the favourite to become the LPC leader with a 40% implied probability to Freeland's 35%.
    • Data from Kalshi shows bettors giving Freeland a 43% implied probability of being the next PM compared to 38% for Carney (the two websites ask slightly different questions, but the next LPC leader - barring unforeseen circumstances - will become the PM and as such can be seen as essentially the same).
  • Whether Carney, Freeland, or another potential candidate emerges as LPC leader and PM they are unlikely to have a significant amount of time before an election campaign.
  • The leftist New Democratic Party and the regionalist Bloc Quebecois, both crucial to avoiding defeat for the minority LPC gov't in previous confidence votes, have said they support an election at the nearest opportunity. Opinion polling continues to show the main opposition centre-right Conservatives on course for a comfortable majority.