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Free AccessFinal HICP confirms flash; September disinflation broad-based
- Eurozone final HICP inflation for September confirmed flash estimates at 4.3% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior) and 0.3% M/M (vs. 0.3% prior).
- Core inflation printed in line with the flash at 4.5% Y/Y (vs 5.3% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs. 0.3% prior).
- All major components contributed less to the headline inflation rate than in August, indicating September's disinflation was more broad-based than just due to the German transport ticket and other statistical /base effects.
- The largest contributor to the headline rate was once again services (adding 2.05pp), but this was the lowest contribution since February 2023 and a 0.36pp lower contribution than in August (2.41pp). This was somewhat expected given the aforementioned German transport ticket/statistical effects.
- Energy contributed -0.55pp to the headline rate, but recent developments in oil prices add a risk that this trend may reverse in the coming months.
- At a country level, Spain, France, Croatia, Slovakia, Latvia, Malta and Cyprus saw the flash estimates revised up by 0.1pp, while Italy, Austria and Estonia's final readings were 0.1pp lower than the flash.
- Later today, the ECB will release data on the underlying inflation metrics they follow most closely (Supercore, trimmed mean, weighted median, PCCI) in the coming days, providing further insight on the pace of disinflation in the Euro area.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.