Final November CPI Inflation Revised To +6.6% Y/Y

Poland's November CPI inflation was revised a tad higher to +6.6% Y/Y in the final reading from the flash reading of +6.5%, which brings it into line with the initial consensus forecast. The sequential figure was left unchanged at +0.7% M/M.

• According to ING, November saw a large drop in core inflation, to +7.3% Y/Y from +8.0% prior. They expect a slight rebound in headline inflation in December, but see disinflation resuming at the beginning of 2024. They expect the MPC to keep rates on hold at least until March and possibly through the whole year, but see rising odds of more cuts being delivered before the end of next year.
• The Polish Economic Institute write that core inflation likely fell to +7.6% Y/Y from +8.0%, based on detailed data. They expect headline to tick higher to +7.0% Y/Y in December. In their view, inflation will ease below +5.0% Y/Y in 1Q2024, which will be supported by the new government's decisions to maintain a zero VAT rate on food items and freeze energy prices for households.
• Note that the NBP will release official core CPI data for November on Monday. The consensus forecast in Bloomberg's poll of economists is +7.2% Y/Y.