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Final Readings Confirm Q4 GDP Growth At +1.0% Y/Y

POLAND

Poland's economy grew 1.0% Y/Y in 4Q2023 and was unchanged on a quarterly basis, according to final data from Statistics Poland. This is in line with flash readings.

  • ING point to the cautious mood of consumers at end-2023, despite solid real income growth. They expect GDP to expand by 3% Y/Y this year, adding that consumption will be the main engine of growth, albeit without the "excess" of recent years.
  • mBank commented that consumption should accelerate in 2024, while investments will moderate (albeit may rebound into the year-end).
  • The Polish Economic Institute say that GDP growth should be close to +2.2% Y/Y in 1Q2024 thanks to a rebound in consumption and a low comparative base. They expect a slowdown in investments related to the cycle of EU funds disbursements and narrower firms' profits - albeit there is potential for weak recovery later in the year. They expect the economy to add 2.4% Y/Y this year.

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