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Finalized Durables Report Doesn’t Change Tepid Trend

US DATA
  • A small beat for factory orders partly offset by a downward revision plus minimal revisions to core durable goods orders in the finalised January print don’t materially change the US manufacturing outlook.
  • Core orders held onto the (nominal) 0.8% M/M bounce in Jan after two monthly declines, leaving a very subdued 3M/3M trend of just -0.3% annualized.
  • Previously released (real) industrial production was running at a weaker -4.7% annualized on the same trend basis in January, whilst the ISM mfg survey levelling off with a 47 handle in Jan-Feb continues to suggest there could be further downside ahead for the manufacturing sector despite a bounce in its new orders subcomponent (from 42.5 to 47.0).

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