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BRAZIL: Finance Minister Haddad To Present Govt Priorities To Congress

BRAZIL
  • With President Lula speaking today about efforts to lower the cost of living, Minister of Agrarian Development Paulo Teixeira has said that the government will request BRL 1bn ($172mn) within the 2025 Budget Law to make a stock of mainly rice, beans and wheat. Teixeira said that it is necessary to carefully reinforce reserves against cyclical increases in some foods.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad will deliver 25 measures to Congress from 1500GMT(1000ET) that he considers to be priorities. These are expected to include regulation of big tech and military pension reform, as well as the limitation of super salaries. It follows remarks from Treasury Secretary Ceron that the government is betting on a contractionary fiscal policy to re-anchor inflation expectations as soon as possible.
    • Against this backdrop, DI swap rates are underperforming, with yields up by around 15bp in the belly and long-end. Meanwhile, USDBRL is up by ~0.6%. Initial resistance is at 5.9469, the 50-day EMA, while on the downside, sights remain on 5.7231, the Nov 13 ‘24 low.
    • Today’s data were mixed, with Dec IP well above expectations, but Jan PMI figures soft. Ahead, Jan trade data are due Friday, followed by key IPCA inflation figures on Feb 11.
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  • With President Lula speaking today about efforts to lower the cost of living, Minister of Agrarian Development Paulo Teixeira has said that the government will request BRL 1bn ($172mn) within the 2025 Budget Law to make a stock of mainly rice, beans and wheat. Teixeira said that it is necessary to carefully reinforce reserves against cyclical increases in some foods.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad will deliver 25 measures to Congress from 1500GMT(1000ET) that he considers to be priorities. These are expected to include regulation of big tech and military pension reform, as well as the limitation of super salaries. It follows remarks from Treasury Secretary Ceron that the government is betting on a contractionary fiscal policy to re-anchor inflation expectations as soon as possible.
    • Against this backdrop, DI swap rates are underperforming, with yields up by around 15bp in the belly and long-end. Meanwhile, USDBRL is up by ~0.6%. Initial resistance is at 5.9469, the 50-day EMA, while on the downside, sights remain on 5.7231, the Nov 13 ‘24 low.
    • Today’s data were mixed, with Dec IP well above expectations, but Jan PMI figures soft. Ahead, Jan trade data are due Friday, followed by key IPCA inflation figures on Feb 11.