FINANCIALS: Citigroup Results 12 Jul: US Consumer, Global IB Trends

Citigroup (C: A3/BBB+/A) reports 2Q24 results on 12-Jul, as well. Citi has been pushing its restructuring story in the last few weeks which, along with negative regulatory newsflow, points to the key issues of complexity, over-reach and over-spend. But that’s a long process – for now, US consumer health and IB trends will also feature.

• Results last time (12-Apr) beat on headline numbers but forward guidance looked sub-consensus, especially on revenues. In common with many peers, the equity was down across results but since recovered and had a really strong run in the last week or two. This will be another good insight into the health of the US consumer, aside from IB trends globally.
• FRTB and the strength of Jefferies results are both positive trends going into these results, but Citi has also been on the front foot selling its restructuring story (WSJ article on 26-Jun), alongside offloading some small businesses. Its “living will” has been criticised by the FDIC and regulation and compliance, aside from institutional complexity, remain key strategic issues.
• Since results, EUR cash bonds are 7bp tighter, whereas €IG banks are broadly flat as many of the US banks outperformed the European political risk sell-off. The equity is marginally (+4pp) ahead of the US financials index since last results.
• Earnings estimates have barely moved since last time with earnings c.+0.5% and revenues up even less.

Results are due at 1300 (London time) with a 1600 conf call at: https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/citigroup/webinars/CITI2Q24.cfm