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FINANCIALS: RBIAV: Nothing Here To Give Market Further Fear

FINANCIALS

Raiffeisen Bank (RBIAV: A1) headlines results are good and guidance on the ex-Russia financials that the credit stack will (likely) look to, remains similar to that published a quarter ago. So, some comfort there. Ex-Russia operating metrics do look better with lower loan losses and NPLs. After the big spread widening (+69bp) on results day last time, we see nothing here to give the market further fear, but this remains a politicised and volatile situation.

  • Credit stats: loan losses are just 27bp (from 22bp in 1Q24), over 70% better than expected. NPLs are 1.8% (10bp better than Mar-24) with the improvement largely in Ukraine. CET1 ratio (ex-Russia) is 14.7% (+10bp from Mar-24) with new guidance that this should be stable to Dec-24. Headline CET1 ratio is actually 20bp better than (cum-Russia) consensus (at 17.8%).
  • Revenues are c.4% better than expectations which, with better costs and lower loan losses, means pre-tax profit is 25% above consensus. 
  • Positive headlines, but it’s the ex-Russia figures which consensus is not (yet) capturing that are key. Guidance appears to still be a profit base around 25% lower than before – unchanged from statements made at 1Q24 stage.

Conf call is 1301 (London time) at: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1643453&tp_key=201c2397db

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