Finland and Baltics Scarce Gas Supply Scenario Likely Averted: OIES

A worst-case scenario that customers in Finland and the Baltics are cut off due to scarce gas supply has likely been averted according to OIES.

• The Balticconnector pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia have been offline since early October after being ruptured by an anchor dragging along the seabed.
• Sendout capacity at Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal is sufficient to cover peaks in demand but there is very limited flexibility in the Finnish gas and power markets.
• An ice buildup impeding the delivery of LNG or a nuclear outage straining the power system would still be likely to result in a sharp increase in prices, potentially forcing marginal users out of the market to balance the system.
• Gasgrid Finland had warned commercial stocks were running low earlier in Feb after the delayed arrival of an LNG tanker at Inkoo, though it had back-up stocks available.
• GasGrid Finland retains the aim of bringing the Balticconnector back into operation in April 2024.