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Firmer Activity Data Supports Real In Early Trade

BRAZIL
  • Brazil economic activity data for December registered well-above expectations at 1.36% Y/y. Itaú said this was broadly in line with their forecast and that the release sums up the December data on industrial production (+1.1%), retail sales (broad: -1.1%; core: -1.3%) and service sector real revenue (+0.3%). USDBRL is down 0.16% and below Friday’s lows, however, the pair remains well within the familiar tech parameters of 4.90-5.00.
  • The data has helped support the Brazilian real at today’s open, offsetting any negative impact from the decline of iron ore prices since the return of Chinese markets overnight. Iron ore futures (on SGX) tumbled roughly 1.5%, with market participants weighing prospects for near-term demand in the world’s largest metals consumer.
    • While Premier Li Qiang called for “pragmatic and forceful” action to boost confidence in the economy, Beijing opted to keep the interest rate on its one-year policy loans steady.
  • The attempt to overturn the extension of payroll tax breaks and to end existing tax benefits to companies in the services sector will remain high on the agenda in congress, where JPMorgan expect negotiations to begin in earnest this week.
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