Firmer As ECB Speakers Converge Toward June

Core/semi-core EGBs sit firmer, with this morning's raft of ECB speakers indicating a growing consensus for a June cut while some of the centrists leave an April cut on the table. ECB-dated OIS contracts currently fully price the first full 25bp cut through the June meeting.

• This has prompted a dovish reaction in STIRs, with OIS now pricing 103bps of cuts through '24 (vs 95bps yesterday afternoon).
• Bunds are +46 ticks at 133.80, with the first resistance at 134.18 (Feb 7 high).
• Core global bonds have largely looked through the weakness in JGB futures/hawkish BoJ speculation in recent trade.
• Cash curves have bull steepened across the major EZ countries, while 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are wider. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is 0.8bps wider at 132.50bps, but has still tightened around 15bps this week alone.
• The US labour market release at 1330GMT/1430CET provides the next event of interest across global markets.