Firmer Equities Helps Offset Softer Data Outcomes

USD/Asia pairs are mostly tracking within recent ranges, as the market awaits the Fed outcome later. Most pairs are slightly lower for the session, with a firmer equity market tone helping offset weaker data outcomes in China and South Korea. The Indian budget speech has just kicked off, while tomorrow the main focus is likely to be with South Korean CPI.

• USD/CNH couldn't sustain lows sub 6.7500, the pair back at 6.7550 currently. The Caixin PMI was weaker than expected at 49.2, versus 49.8 forecast, although did show improvement on the Dec print of 49.0. China related equities are a little firmer in the tech space today, while mainland aggregate indices are around +0.25% higher.
• 1 month USD/KRW hasn't been able to sustain moves sub 1230. Trade data was disappointing, with export growth slowing further to -16% y/y, while the trade deficit widened to a record. Local equities are higher (+0.70%), while offshore investors have returned, adding +$117.5mn.
• The bulls appear to be winning the USD/INR battle. The pair last at 81.86, which is down from late highs yesterday above 82.00, but a positive bias remains. Foreign investors sold the most Indian shares in 2 days since June, as the short selling report on the Adani Group continues to weigh on local equities. A net $1.45bn was withdrawn from Indian Equities by global investors on Friday and Monday bring the net outflow for January to ~$3bn. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 55.4 from 57.8. India's budget speech has also commenced.
• USD/IDR has seen some resistance above 15000, with the pair last tracking just under 14980. CPI data for Jan was a touch weaker than expected, core at 3.27% (3.30% forecast), while headline came in at 5.28% (5.40% forecast). The PMI rose to 51.3 from 50.9, while the detail showed reduced inflation pressures.
• USD/THB is around 0.30% lower for the session so far, last around 32.90/91. Still the pair has been probing higher in recent sessions, getting above 33.00 late yesterday. J.P. Morgan took profit on its long held overweight position, saying the currency had caught up with re-opening theme to a large degree, although it looks to re-establish longs at better entry levels. The manufacturing PMI did improve though to 54.5, while the Thai government stated growth of 4% this year is achievable.