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Firmer Following Dovish US Data Reaction

EGBS

Bund, OAT and BTP futures trade at intraday highs, taking cues from the dovish UST reaction to this afternoon's US data.

  • US IJC, the MNI Chicago PMI and pending home sales were all below consensus this afternoon, seemingly outweighing hawkish read-throughs from today's flash inflation releases in France, Spain and Germany (where core inflation appears stubborn across countries).
  • Bunds are now +46 and 132.67 having traded in a 108 tick range today. The first resistance is still some way off at 133.28 (20-day EMA).
  • STIR markets have moved alongside bonds, with the Euribor strip -1.5 to +5.0 ticks at typing.
  • ECB implied rates have returned to levels seen through much of this week, with 93bps of rate cuts priced through the remainder of 2024.
  • The Eurozone-wide flash inflation release highlights tomorrow's agenda, but the February manufacturing PMIs (particularly Spain and Italy, which do not have a flash release) will also garner interest.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.903-0.3
Apr-243.861-4.5
Jun-243.667-24.0
Jul-243.511-39.6
Sep-243.306-60.0
Oct-243.146-76.0
Dec-242.977-92.9
Jan-252.845-106.1
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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