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Firming US Equities Underpin AUD Test on Overnight Highs

AUD
  • Strength in US equities following the opening bell is helping AUD/USD erase some of the overnight losses, making 0.6623 the first intraday resistance that's seen firmer into 0.6647 and above. Clearance here would put the pair at the best levels since early March, marking a >4.50% recovery off the April low.
  • Option vols have moderated considerably away from the put skew evident in mid-April, with 3m risk reversals now broadly inline with the YTD average and potentially signalling a clear-out of short-term positioning and less focus on downside in the pair.
  • Expiry interest across the coming week (containing April jobs data, the Q1 wage price index as well as US inflation) could keep the pair somewhat anchored absent a bullish trigger: over A$2.5bln is set to roll off at 0.6590-00 on Tuesday and $0.6580-00 at the Thursday cut.
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