May 01, 2023 22:41 GMT
Firms Above $1.07, RBA On Tap
AUD/NZD has firmed from below the $1.07 handle after printing its lowest level since mid April ($1.0683) on Friday.
- The pair now prints at $1.0740/50 after being supported below $1.07 on Monday.
- We now sit below the 20-Day EMA ($1.0780), bears target a break of the low from April 28 ($1.0683) from here look to test year to date lows at $1.0588.
- Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA, then the 200-Day EMA ($1.0867) to turn the tide.
- Rate differentials, observed via 2 year swap rates, have widened a touch. We now sit at -146bps, however we remain above cycle lows of -165bps seen in early April.
- The RBA's latest monetary policy decision today presents the next risk event, the bank is expected to hold policy unchanged at 3.6%. The MNI preview is here.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs
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