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Firms Off May Lows, Rate Differentials Narrow

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD firmed ~1.2% after printing a month to date low on Thursday, the pair now sits around the 20-Day EMA ($1.0727). NZD was pressured on Friday after the drop in 2 Year Inflation expectations.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 year swap rates, have narrowed to -128bps. Rate differentials were as wide as -160bps in early May.
  • Bulls look to clear the 20-day EMA, from here they can target the high from 2 May at $1.0835. A break through here opens the 200-Day EMA ($1.0854).
  • On the downside bears target low from 5 April at $1.0588, from here they look to break 2022 lows at $1.0471.
  • Data-wise, in Australia the RBA minutes of the May meeting, April Employment Survey and Q1 Wage Price Index will cross. In New Zealand Q1 PPI and Apr Trade Balance crossed.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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