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Firms, RBNZ Raises OCR 50bps, Cash Rate Peak Still Projected at 5.50%

NZD

NZD/USD prints at $0.6230/35, ~0.2% firmer as the RBNZ raises the OCR 50bps.

  • The pair rose from $0.6212 pre release, printing a high of $0.6246. Upside resistance comes in at the 200-day EMA ($0.6291).
  • The OCR now sits at 4.75%, the RBNZ still sees the rate peaking at 5.5% and they also still see a recession starting in Q2 this year. There had been some speculation the bank would pause today, given the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle, but the RBNZ stated it will look through short term output and price fluctuations.
  • The bank sees inflation back within the target band in Q3 2024.
  • AUD/NZD is ~0.4% softer, falling below the $1.10 handle. The cross was dealing at $1.1040 pre release, printing a low of $1.0978 in the immediate aftermath. 20-Day EMA comes in at $1.0968.
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