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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Tax collection data for April 17 doesn't particularly inspire confidence that receipts will be sufficient for the Treasury to avoid an "x-date" in early June, but it's still too early to tell.
- Last night's daily Treasury statement showed that on April 17, the key seasonal tax collections totalled $54B ($19.3B in corporate tax, and $34.6B in individual tax), vs $41.5B on Friday.
- Overall the Treasury General Account balance rose by $9.2B, to $144B. That's the highest since April 3, but up only $57B from last week's post-2021 low.
- So today's data for April 18 will be the most important in the cycle, marking the main tax collection deadline of the year. Tuesday's data will be released at 4pm ET at this link.
- Multiple analysts have pointed out that the collection data so far has been underwhelming, though there is still time for the TGA to be built up this month.
- Wrightson ICAP sees the data so far as mixed, with the main seasonal tax categories slightly stronger on balance over Friday and Monday than they had expected, other components were "a little weaker in the aggregate".
- They are looking for $130B in collection on April 18, including $51B in corporate taxes and $79B in individual. That would keep an x-date of late July in play but wouldn't necessarily rule out an early June date: "combined with the offsetting surprises for April 14 and April 17, that would leave federal revenues close to our original forecast – and will leave the debt ceiling timeline in limbo."
Source: MNI, Treasury
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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