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First Fed Cut No Longer Fully Priced For May After NFP Surprise, Powell Next In Focus

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed higher recently to move closer to post-payrolls highs, with now just 6.5bp of cuts for March (10bp pre-data) and a cumulative 23bp for May (from 33bp).
  • The second cut is now next fully priced for the July FOMC (64bp vs 83bp pre-data), with 122bp of cuts for 2024 as a whole (from 143bp).
  • We still haven’t seen any pop-up Fedspeak, with Powell next up on 60 Minutes on Sun (Feb 4) at 1900ET, including rate cut discussions and the banking system. The interview was held yesterday, so after Wed’s FOMC and before today’s NFP report, but with questions whether he would have had advance sight of the data before the interview.
  • Powell speaking to David Rubenstein on Feb 7, 2023: “Sometimes we get data just the night before and it’s only me. Not on all pieces of data, it’s a very small amount of data”.

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