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First Fed Cut Pushed Back To September

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates see the terminal pushed up to 5.47% (14bp of tightening) for January from 11bp in Dec seen just before the decision, but 2024 meetings show a larger increase.
  • Cuts are reduced to 20bp from terminal to Jun’24 (27bp pre-decision) and 76bp from terminal to Dec’24 (from 86bp).
  • The first cut from current levels is pushed back a meeting to Sep’24.

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