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First Increase For Leading Index Since Feb’22, But Headwinds Remain

US DATA
  • The Conference Board’s Leading Index was stronger than expected in February, rising 0.1% M/M (cons -0.1) after -0.4% M/M.
  • It’s the first M/M increase for the series since Feb’22.
  • From the press release: “Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years.”
  • “However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative.”
  • “Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward. The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.”

Source: The Conference Board

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