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Free AccessFiscal Deficits Halting Current Account Normalization [2/2]
- The slow return towards pre-pandemic levels of the current account deficit (noted in part 1) have come partly as a result of continued loose fiscal policy.
- On a net lending basis from BEA data, government net borrowing stood at more than 8% GDP in Q2, requiring both elevated net lending balances with the rest of world (showing up as a current account deficit) as well as the private sector.
- The household sector tends to be a sizeable net lender and indeed has been running historically low levels of savings as it burns through accumulated ‘excess savings’ built up during the pandemic.
- Businesses however have been making up the slack recently, with an increasingly large net lending position as opposed to their more typical small net borrowing which helps fund investment. This relative saving could act as a drag on growth moving ahead.
- [Note the govt position in the chart below is for 2Q23 but other sectors are only for 1Q23].
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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