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Fiscal Pressures Weigh On BRL, February Economic Activity Due

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real remained under pressure yesterday, as sentiment deteriorated following the loosening of the 2025 fiscal targets, and reports that there could be more fiscal setbacks from congress later this week. USDBRL rose by a further 1.8%, taking the pair to the highest since March 2023. Having cleared 5.22, this signal scope for a climb towards 5.3330, 76.4% of the Nov 11 ‘23 - Jul 28 ‘23 bear leg.
  • Today, the BCB will publish its economic activity index for February at 1300BST(0800ET). Analysts expect activity to have risen by 0.35% m/m (vs. +0.60% prior), which would bring the annual rate down to 2.55% y/y, from 3.45%. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad and BCB President Campos Neto will be in Washington for the IMF spring meetings today, participating in a number of events throughout the day.
    • Feb. Economic Activity MoM, est. 0.35%, prior 0.60%
    • Feb. Economic Activity YoY, est. 2.55%, prior 3.45%
  • In other news, Vale reported that it had produced more iron ore than expected in the first quarter, with output rising to 70.8m tonnes, vs. 68.2m expected. It also said that copper output rose 22% y/y, while nickel output fell by 4% y/y. Q1 earnings will be reported April 24. Separately, O Globo reported that a Brazil court has overturned an earlier ruling and reappointed Pietro Mendes as chairman of the Board of Petrobras.
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