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Fitch See US Core CPI Rising to 4.5% Y/Y By End-2021

US

Fitch write that:

  • US core CPI inflation will rise further in the coming months before falling back in 2022.
  • Supply-chain pressures show no sign of abating and core goods prices will continue to rise quite sharply in the next several months.
  • Services prices will experience some further reopening pressure, but we expect this to fade by late summer.
  • Our forecasts imply a further increase in core CPI inflation to around 4.5% yoy by end-2021, although we forecast headline CPI to fall to 4.1% on the basis of our oil price outlook.
  • We expect core inflation to fall to 2.5% yoy from mid-2022 assuming no surge in wage or rent inflation.
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