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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFitch Upgraded Telecom Italia After The Close
New Profile: Ba2[P]/BB/BB
Fitch upgraded TIM to BB from BB- on the NetCo disposal which should see a rduction in gross debt by EUR 13bn to EUR 13.2bn by end-2024. Seems like cash flow will be the factor in focus on upside potential with the chosen cash flow metric seen at 1.4% by 2026 against an upgrade threshold of 5% by 2027.
- TIM's strong market positions in Italy and Brazil aid stability, despite FX risks. Liquidity post-disposal is EUR 7.8bn, covering maturities through 2025.
- TIM’s net debt estimated at EUR 8.5bn for 2024 with EBITDA leverage to improve from 2.6x in 2024 to 2.4x by 2027.
- CFO-less-CapEx-to-Debt expected to stay weak from <0% in 2024, only gradually improving to 1.4% by 2026. Potential strategic divestments (e.g., Sparkle, Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane) could further reduce debt and drive upside while the compensation payment from the 1998 concession charge dispute could lower leverage by 0.3x.
- Fitch expect post-split revenue growth of ~1% annually with enterprise growth offsetting slower consumer and Brazillian growth post-FX conversion. EBITDA CAGR seen around 2.7% from 2024-2027 driven by Enterprise at ~7.1% and offset by Consumer ~2.6%.
- Upside thresholds given at leverage sustainably <2.7x, CFO-less-CapEx-to-Debt reaching 5% by 2027 with a structural trend towards 9%, domestic EBITDA contribution remaining >50% and accelerated inorganic deleveraging.
- Downside thresholds of leverage sustainably >2.7x, CFO-less-CapEx-to-Debt remaining week and by 2027 and structurally below 7% over the LT, material increase in FX-sensitive Brazillian EBITDA contribution and a coverage ratio <4.5x.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.