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Five Cuts No Longer Priced For 2024, U.Mich Ahead

STIR
  • Ahead of the U.Mich survey at the top of the hour, March cut pricing has been trimmed to a cumulative 14bp (17bp pre-payrolls), June to 47bp (from 53bp) and year-end pricing to 114bp (from 122bp).
  • Recall that last month’s U.Mich inflation expectations surprisingly jumped in the preliminary report, then boosted further/surprisingly maintained in the finalized print.
  • It left the 1Y at 4.5% for the highest since April (seen dipping to 4.3%), and 5-10Y at 3.2% for the highest since 2011 (seen dipping back into its trusty 2.9-3.1% range).

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