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Fixed Weight Wage Growth Stabilizes In June

  • Payroll employment increased +48k in June after the +130k of May, leaving a cumulative +456k compared to June 2022.
  • Fixed weighted wage growth largely stabilized at 3.6% Y/Y after 3.7% Y/Y in May. It has seen some volatility of late, ranging between 2.7% and 4%, although forward-looking measures such as the CFIB small business survey have started to show more signs of disinflationary progress.
  • Job vacancies at lowest level since May 2021, down by 8,900 (-1.2%) to 753k in June.
  • Job vacancy rate continues to edge down at +4.2% from +5.8% in January, the lowest level since Q1 2021.
  • Note that the more timely Labour Force Survey surprised forecasters by tripling expectations in June, this trend was flipped in July where employment decreased by -6.4K despite a foretasted +25K.

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