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Flash Feb Inflation Surges Further, Outpaces Expectations

ITALY DATA
MNI (London)

FEB PRELIMINARY HICP +0.8% M/M, +6.2Y/Y (JAN +5.1%)

FEB PREL HICP CORE INFLATION +1.9% Y/Y VS JAN +1.5% Y/Y

FEB NIC CORE INFLATION +1.7% Y/Y VS JAN +1.5% Y/Y

  • Italian inflation outpaced expectations this morning, hitting a fresh euro-era record high of +6.2% Y/Y in the February flash estimate, 0.7% higher than the consensus forecast and 1.1% higher than the January print.
  • On the month, inflation surged by 0.8%, significantly stronger than the downwardly revised 0.0% seen in January.
  • Energy price growth softened, albeit still jumping +38.6% y/y (compared to +45.9% y/y in January).
  • Grocery prices grew strongly on the month +0.8% m/m and +4.2% y/y.
  • This data will be uncomfortable for the ECB, which had shifted towards more flexibility in rhetoric over monetary policy in their last meeting. However, the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to expectations of any rate hikes this year (see https://marketnews.com/mni-sources-ukraine-war-to-shelve-calls-for-ecb-rate-hikes ), with the conflict possibly decreasing Eurozone growth by 1%.


Source: ISTAT

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