Flash GDP (Q3 2019) Preview - 0630GMT...>

FRANCE DATA: Flash GDP (Q3 2019) Preview - 0630GMT 30/10/19

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- Bloomberg Consensus: 0.2% q/q, 1.3% y/y; Prev (Q2): 0.3% q/q, 1.4% y/y 

- In contrast to the BoF's forecast of a steady reading for Q3's quarterly GDP,

markets expect quarterly growth to slow to 0.2% in Q3. 

- The annual rate touched the highest in three quarters in Q2, rising to 1.4%

and markets are looking for a downtick by 0.1pp to 1.3% in Q3. 

- While France's composite PMI averaged at 51.9 in Q3, up from 51.3 in Q2, the

Q3's average of the French business climate indicator remained unchanged at 106.

- Industrial production revealed a weak start into the third quarter with

monthly IP growing by 0.3% in July and falling by 0.9% in August. 

- Meanwhile, retail trade held up posting gains in Q3. 

- External headwinds, such as political uncertainty and decelerating global

growth, continue to pose a threat. 

- However, the French economy is less exposed to swings in the global cycle than

Germany, as its model is more domestically focused.