Flash inflation prints in focus

The focus of the morning session will be the release of Spanish HICP and then German regional CPI prints. We have already received NRW which came in at +0.9%M/M (national is expected at +0.5%M/M), so early risks seem titled to the upside for Germany, but we will reassess following more state prints.

See the following previews from our data team:

• Today’s Spanish inflation print at 8:00BST / 9:00CET is expected to see a 0.2pp deceleration to +8.1% y/y in the harmonised May print. This would be the second month of slower price growth for the country, which saw inflation running at a 40-year high of 9.8% in March. Softer price growth is largely on the back of easing energy prices and improving supply chains. An uptick to +0.4% m/m from -0.3% m/m will however hint at the continued growth of core inflation as food and hospitality prices continue to accelerate.
• Following the morning round of state CPI readings, this afternoon’s German inflation print is not seen letting up yet in May. The flash is forecasted to bump up 0.1pp to +7.5% y/y and by 0.2pp to +8.0% y/y for HICP. This would be a fresh over-40-year high for Germany as energy and food prices continue to soar. Inflation rates are however anticipated to soften on the month by 0.3-0.4pp to +0.5% m/m for CPI and to +0.3% m/m for HICP.