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Flash PMIs Offer Soft Landing Evidence

US DATA
  • The S&P Global composite PMI surprisingly increased to 51.0 (cons 50.0) from 50.2 in the preliminary October report.
  • The positive surprise and increase was led by services at a three-month high (50.9 vs cons 49.9 after 50.1), whilst manufacturing also firmed to a six-month high (50.0 vs cons 49.5 after 49.8).
  • The press release does however note some further progress on inflation metrics: "Meanwhile, inflationary pressures softened. Cost burdens rose at the slowest pace for three years, with firms moderating hikes in selling prices at the same time. The rate of charge inflation eased to the weakest since June 2020 and was slower than the long-run series average. Firms were reportedly keen to pass through any cost savings made to customers in a bid to drive sales."
  • Further: “The survey’s selling price gauge is now close to its prepandemic long-run average and consistent with headline inflation dropping close to the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months, something which looks likely to be achieved without output falling into contraction.”
  • The surprisingly large market reaction has been geared more towards the beat in activity metrics and less so the inflationary measures.

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